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The business cycles and the influence of economic confidence indicators in the European region

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Author(s): Alexandru Constantinescu

Journal: The Romanian Economic Journal
ISSN 1454-4296

Volume: XV;
Issue: 44;
Start page: 201;
Date: 2012;
Original page

Keywords: macroeconomic indicators | financial markets circuit | economic sentiment indicators | stock volatility | economic cycles

ABSTRACT
The economic confidence level is expressed by managers that are active in significant economic sectors. The financial markets consider these economic confidence indicators as leading instruments that can point the direction of the real economy. The level of trust in the economy is important because, similar with the stock investors behavior, the private sector managers or the consumers can act and carry a restrictive or a euphoric business policy, actions that could in fact affect the environment in a negative way and could unbalance the economic equilibrium.The role of this study is to propose a methodology of analyzing the influence of the economic confidence indicators over the stock market, an industry that can be overlooked as a transmission environment for the investment sentiment. We plan to study and comment the relation between these indicators, the stock market and future macroeconomic results like the GDP, the industrial production or the unemployment rate.
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