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Development and uncertainty analysis of a high-resolution NH3 emissions inventory and its implications with precipitation over the Pearl River Delta region, China

Author(s): J. Y. Zheng | S. S. Yin | D. W. Kang | W. W. Che | L. J. Zhong

Journal: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions
ISSN 1680-7367

Volume: 11;
Issue: 12;
Start page: 33733;
Date: 2011;
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Detailed NH3 emission inventories are important to understand various atmospheric processes, air quality modeling study, air pollution management, and related environmental and ecological issues. A high-resolution NH3 emission inventory is developed based on the state-of-the-science techniques, the up-to-date information, and the advanced expert knowledge for the Pearl River Delta region, China. To provide model-ready emissions input, this NH3 emissions inventory is spatially allocated to 3 km × 3 km grid cells using source-based spatial surrogates with Geographical Information System (GIS) technology. For NH3 emissions, 9 source categories and 45 sub-categories are identified in this region, and detailed spatial and temporal characteristics are investigated. Results show that livestock is by far the most important NH3 emission source that contributes about 61.7% of the total NH3 emissions in this region, followed by nitrogen fertilizer applications (~23.7%) and non-agricultural sources (~14.6%). Uncertainty analysis reveals that the uncertainties associated with different sources vary from source to source and the magnitude of the uncertainty associated with a specific source mainly depends on the degree of accuracy of the emission factors and activity data as well as the technique used to perform the estimate. The validity of the NH3 emissions inventory is justified by the trend analysis of local rainwater compositions, especially pH values, the Ca2+ + NH4+/SO42− + NO3− ratios, and NH4+ concentrations which are directly or indirectly related to NH3 emissions. Based on the analysis, recommendations for additional work to further improve the accuracy of the NH3 emissions inventory are also discussed and proposed.
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