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The Dissemination Simulation of Paroxysmal Public Crisis Information Based on Polya Distribution

Author(s): Zhihong Li | Yuehui Chen | Guanggang Zhou | Xue Bai

Journal: Journal of Software
ISSN 1796-217X

Volume: 6;
Issue: 8;
Start page: 1492;
Date: 2011;
Original page

Keywords: Paroxysmal public crisis | crisis information dissemination | Matthew effect | polya distribution

From the view of information accumulation, the dissemination of web-based information is essentially the process of increasing the amount of information on the Internet. The dissemination of positive and negative information will always follow the Matthew Effect. In this paper, we simulated the dissemination process of a crisis information using the basic model of Matthew— polya, and explained the uncertainty of dissemination and emergence of Matthew effect with probability distribution model. According to the dissemination phenomena and probability distribution features of positive and negative information, the crisis information dissemination process can be divided into three stages: Sensitive period, developing period and stable period. Through the promotion and improvement of the original model, we illustrated the influence in the final outcome that the speed of information dissemination and the probability of the information being acquired can make. The Government can implement the crisis management by controlling the speed of information dissemination and the probability of the information being acquired.
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