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Early Warning Systems, the Case of Turkey = Erken Uyarı Sistemleri, Türkiye Uygulaması

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Author(s): Sinan AKTAN

Journal: Dogus University Journal
ISSN 1302-6739

Volume: 6;
Issue: 1;
Start page: 1;
Date: 2005;
Original page

Keywords: Discriminant analysis | Logit analysis | Business failures | Ayırma analizi | Logit analiz | İşletme başarısızlıkları

ABSTRACT
We are focusing on two alternative techniques that can be used empirically to select predictors for failure prediction purposes. The selected techniques have all different assumptions about the relationships between the independent variables. Linear discriminant analysis is based on linear combination of independent variables; logit analysis uses logistic cumulative probability distribution function. Our aim is to study if these essential differences between methods affect the empirical selection of independent variables to the models and lead significant differences in failure prediction accuracy; moreover, develop a prediction model that would be benefited by management itself, shareholders, government, vendors, creditors, investors and other stakeholders in their projections and strategies.
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