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ECONOMIC RENTABILITY AND RISK ON CHARCOAL PRODUCTION

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Author(s): Rodrigo Ribeiro de Castro | Márcio Lopes da Silva | Helio Garcia Leite | Márcio Leles Romarco de Oliveira

Journal: Cerne
ISSN 0104-7760

Volume: 13;
Issue: 4;
Start page: 353;
Date: 2007;
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Keywords: Charcoal | economic analysis | risk | Monte Carlo | Simulation.

ABSTRACT
The goal of the present work was to evaluate the economic viability of producing charcoal in eucalypt stands, indeteministic and risk conditions. In order to do this, the costs of a forest project were defined, as well as the production of charcoalunder the management regime with three rotations per cicle. The risk analysis was carried out through the Monte Carlo method, usingthe @RISK software. Through the deterministic analysis, the economic indicators were positive (viable), and the risk analysisindicates that there is a probability of 12 % for obtaining negative values, namely, for the project to be economicaly inviable. It wasdemonstrated that the inclusion of the risk analysis in the analysis of a project economic rentability offers greater safety for inferenceabout the economic indicators.
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