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An Empirical Analysis of Accurate Budget Forecasting in Turkey = Türkiye'de Bütçe Tahmini Doğruluğunun Ampirik Bir Analizi

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Author(s): Muhlis BAĞDİGEN

Journal: Dogus University Journal
ISSN 1302-6739

Volume: 6;
Issue: 2;
Start page: 190;
Date: 2005;
Original page

Keywords: Budget forecasting | Budgeting | Forecast error | Bütçe tahmini | Bütçeleme | Tahmin hatası

ABSTRACT
This paper analyzes the accuracy of budget forecasts in Turkey. Data is based on 23 years' forecasted and materialized general budget revenues and outlays, from 1981 to 2003. One sample statistics, tabulated, and one sample t tests are applied to find out the accuracy of forecasting and the results show that there are statistically significant forecast errors and this significance, especially, indicates biases towards under-forecasting of outlays and over-forecasting of revenues.

Tango Jona
Tangokurs Rapperswil-Jona

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