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Evaluating the modal split of overland transportation of general cargo in Brazil using a market share model

Author(s): Brunno Santos Gonçalves | Márcio de Almeida D´Agosto | Ilton Curty Leal Jr. | Francisco Gildemir Ferreira da Silva

Journal: Journal of Transport Literature
ISSN 2238-1031

Volume: 8;
Issue: 4;
Start page: 60;
Date: 2014;
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Keywords: modal split | overland transport of general cargo | market share model | logistics costs | transport supply

This paper presents a methodology developed to evaluate the modal split of land transport of general cargo in Brazil and possible reasons for the prevalence of road transport over rail, using a market share model. No studies were found using the market share model for planning cargo transport, in spite of its generic nature which makes it readily applicable to any market, service, utility or commodity. The methodology was applied in three transport corridors, two groups of general cargo and enabled us to establish that Brazilian rail operations are still uncompetitive in terms of logistics costs when transporting general cargo of high aggregate value. Moreover, transport supply is a determinant factor for the greater use of road transport in Brazil’s general cargo transport matrix, and the demand for general cargo transport in Brazil is elastic in relation to this factor. For low aggregate value general cargo (AV1), a 1% reduction in the gap between road and railway supply leads to an increase in the railway market share of 4.5% through TC1 (São Paulo - Porto Alegre - São Paulo), 4.9% through TC2 (Santos - Brasilia - Santos), and 3.3% through TC3(São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - São Paulo). For high aggregate value general cargo (AV2), this elasticity was more pronounced. A 1% reduction in the gap between road and railway transport supply leads to an increase in the railway market share of 4.2% through TC1, 11.9% through TC2, and 9.6% through TC3.
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