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Financial Crisis, the International Monetary System and the Challenge of the Emerging Economies

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Author(s): Jorge Rojas

Journal: Revista Economía
ISSN 0254-4415

Volume: 34;
Issue: 68;
Start page: 9;
Date: 2011;
Original page

Keywords: Crisis Financiera | Sistema Monetario | Países Emergentes | Dilema de Triffin.

ABSTRACT
Although in the debate over the current financial crisis there is a general agreement on the role played by foreign capital inflows into the United States —that, together with financial deregulation, allowed for an excessive increase of credit in that country—, we think that their importance has not been fully appreciated, in terms of their link with the asymmetrical organization of an international monetary system that uses the dollar as a reserve currency, and their relationship with the economic growth model adopted by the US over the last thirty years; this relied on increased expenditure on the part of credit-financed households in order to maintain its dynamism, while inflation was kept down by importing cheap foreign manufactures at the expense of the domestic sector’s profitability. We suggest here that the crisis was related to the impossibility of maintaining this economic growth pattern indefinitely, and that recovery will require a radical reform of the international monetary system, as well as a general increase in economic efficiency.Aunque en el debate sobre la actual crisis financiera se ha reconocido el rol jugado por el influjo de capitales extranjeros hacia Estados Unidos —el cual, conjuntamente con la desregulación financiera, hizo posible el crecimiento desmedido del crédito en ese país—, pensamos que aún no se ha reconocido la importancia de tal influjo, ni su conexión con la forma asimétrica como está organizado el actual sistema monetario internacional, ni tampoco su relación con el tipo de crecimiento adoptado por ese país en las últimas tres décadas, que pudo mantener su dinamismo gracias al aumento del gasto de los hogares financiado con crédito, y que mantuvo baja la inflación gracias a la importación de manufacturas baratas, al costo de ver caer la rentabilidad de su sector manufacturero. Sugerimos aquí que la crisis surge por la imposibilidad de llevar adelante ese tipo de crecimiento de manera indefinida y sin sobresaltos, y que una recuperación requerirá tanto una reforma radical del sistema monetario, como el aumento de la eficiencia económica a nivel mundial.
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