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Forecasting Energy Consumption Using Fuzzy Transform and Local Linear Neuro Fuzzy Models

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Author(s): Hossein Iranmanesh | Majid Abdollahzade | Arash Miranian

Journal: International Journal on Soft Computing
ISSN 2229-7103

Volume: 2;
Issue: 4;
Start page: 11;
Date: 2011;
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Keywords: LLNF | LOLIMOT | F-transform | energy consumption | forecasting

ABSTRACT
This paper proposes a hybrid approach based on local linear neuro fuzzy (LLNF) model and fuzzytransform (F-transform), termed FT-LLNF, for prediction of energy consumption. LLNF models arepowerful in modelling and forecasting highly nonlinear and complex time series. Starting from an optimallinear least square model, they add nonlinear neurons to the initial model as long as the model's accuracyis improved. Trained by local linear model tree learning (LOLIMOT) algorithm, the LLNF models providemaximum generalizability as well as the outstanding performance. Besides, the recently introducedtechnique of fuzzy transform (F-transform) is employed as a time series pre-processing method. Thetechnique of F-transform, established based on the concept of fuzzy partitions, eliminates noisy variationsof the original time series and results in a well-behaved series which can be predicted with higheraccuracy. The proposed hybrid method of FT-LLNF is applied to prediction of energy consumption in theUnited States and Canada. The prediction results and comparison to optimized multi-layer perceptron(MLP) models and the LLNF itself, revealed the promising performance of the proposed approach forenergy consumption prediction and its potential usage for real world applications.
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