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Forecasting the Success of Governmental "Incentivized" Initiatives: Case Study of a New Policy Promoting the Replacement of Old Household; Air-conditioners

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Author(s): Akrivi LITSA | Fotios PETROPOULOS | Konstantinos NIKOLOPOULOS

Journal: Journal of Knowledge Management, Economics and Information Technology
ISSN 2069-5934

Volume: 2;
Issue: 8;
Start page: 1;
Date: 2012;
Original page

Keywords: Government | Incentives | Subsidies | Policy Implementation | Group forecasting | Structured Analogies

ABSTRACT
Governments often use budget so as to provide incentives for citizens to adopt new policies, especially when these are promoting eco-friendly technologies e.g. to subsidise the price of a hybrid-car. The public money spent on each policy, is considered to be value-for–money only if many citizens do adopt the proposed policy. This is also known as the ‘cost-effectiveness’ or the ‘economic success’ of a new policy. The latter should not be confused with the ‘economic impact’ of the new policy, as this is usually referred to the respective macro/micro socio-economic impact. This study reports on a experiment with semi-experts using Structured Analogies (SA) forecasting the success of a new policy promoting replacing old household air conditioners with energy saving units under a new environment and technology initiative implemented by a European government. The findings shows evidence that Structured Analogies (SA) is a useful forecasting tool for policy making, however all methods predicted results that were considerably off the mark, indicating the difficulty of the forecasting task under examination.
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