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Has the expansion of car sales in Brazil any impact on the demand for buses? An econometric study of demand for commuting

Author(s): Jacqueline Elhage Ramis

Journal: Journal of Transport Literature
ISSN 2238-1031

Volume: 6;
Issue: 1;
Start page: 110;
Date: 2012;
Original page

Keywords: intercity buses | new vehicle purchase | intercity bus ticket prices

New vehicles retail sales increased three times over the last seven years in Brazil. In order to assess the impact on bus demand caused by this increase, Brazilian intercity bus passengers` movement was analyzed from the year 1996, when the country went trough an important period of economical development, after the implementation of Plano Real. During this period, there were significant changes in all economy sectors, specially with the GDP`s ascending performance. Intercity buses` prices, vehicle maintenance costs, aid access in acquiring new vehicles and seasonality, were analyzed through econometric models. These models indicated a cyclic and ascending performance, mainly influenced by the whole economy and summer vacation.
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