Academic Journals Database
Disseminating quality controlled scientific knowledge

HOUSEHOLD PROTECTION AGAINST DENGUE HEMORRHAGIC FEVER EPIDEMICS IN COASTAL CITY OF MAKASSAR

ADD TO MY LIST
 
Author(s): Halmar Halide

Journal: Journal of Coastal Development
ISSN 1410-5217

Volume: 13;
Issue: 3;
Start page: 195;
Date: 2010;
Original page

Keywords: DHF epidemics | predictive model | forecast value | decision making | DEET

ABSTRACT
The skill of two simple models for predicting Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) epidemics in a coastalcity of Makassar was evaluated. One model uses persistence while the other uses past dengue cases andclimate factors to make predictions. It was shown that the skill of the models was not significantlydifferent. The value of the prediction was also investigated when it was used for deciding whether or notto protect a household from epidemics. When the model predicts that a DHF epidemic was forthcoming,a highly effective but low-cost DEET product was applied to the whole family as protection againstmosquito bites. It was found that the cost of implementing such model prediction was much cheaperthan other options such as: (i) using protection without any forecast and, (ii) neglecting any protection.It was also found that the value of a forecast depends on forecast skill and the cost-to-loss ratio.
Why do you need a reservation system?      Save time & money - Smart Internet Solutions