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HOW CAN WE ANTICIPATE CRISES?

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Author(s): Elena Bianca VIERU

Journal: Annals of the Stefan cel Mare University of Suceava : Fascicle of the Faculty of Economics and Public Administration
ISSN 2066-575X

Volume: 11;
Issue: 2(14);
Start page: 128;
Date: 2011;
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Keywords: Austrian School | business cycle | crisis | expansion | interventionism

ABSTRACT
Every crisis should teach us a valuable lesson. However, it seems that we learn almost nothing since they stilloccur from time to time strongly affecting the world economies. The basic question from where we started our researchand to which we tried to answer as clearly as possible is the following: How can we anticipate future crises before theybegin to make their presence felt on the global economic scene? The answer is both simple and handy, as the mostconsistent and relevant explanations in this regard come from the Austrian School of economics. We refer, inparticular, to the theory of business cycle. Analyzing this problem, we discovered multiple causes, or better said cluesthat might help us anticipate and recognize the onset time of economic recessions. We will focus on two of them,considered to be the most important ones. The first clue is closely linked to an expansionary monetary policy that led toa deterioration of credit and to inflation. The second sign that we will be argued in this paper, a sign in closeconnection with the first clue, is due to the application of protectionist measures or, in other words, the second causewas actually the state’s interventionism.
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