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Logit Model of Motorcycle Accidents in the Philippines Considering Personal and Environmental Factors

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Author(s): Rosemary R. Seva | Glaiza Marie T. Flores | Maria Patricia T. Gotohio | Noel Gabriel C. Paras

Journal: International Journal for Traffic and Transport Engineering
ISSN 2217-544X

Volume: 3;
Issue: 2;
Start page: 173;
Date: 2013;
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Keywords: motorcycle accidents | personal variables | environmental variables | logistic regression

ABSTRACT
The study aims to determine significant personal and environmental variables in predicting motorcycle accidents in the Philippines, compare the results with findings in other countries, and propose possible government interventions. Data were gathered from 177 participants through the use of a survey in a licensing center in the largest city in Metro Manila. Logistic regression was used to predict the likelihood of an accident from variables considered in the model. Three variables were found to be significant predictors of motorcycle accidents: age, driving behavior, and junction type. Younger drivers are more likely to be involved in accidents. The significance of age was unexpected because similar models found this to be insignificant. Driving behavior, specifically, committing violation predicts accident likelihood. Driving at t- and y-junctions also predicts motorcycle accidents. In the Philippines, a unique set of variables were found to predict motorcycle accidents. Although previous studies have established the effect of these variables to accident likelihood, the combination was unforeseen. Government agencies can focus on interventions directed at these three variables.
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