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Modeling caspian sea water level oscilLations Under Diffrent Scenarioes of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrations

Author(s): GholamReza Roshan | Masumeh Moghbel | Stefan Grab

Journal: Iranian Journal of Environmental Health Science & Engineering
ISSN 1735-1979

Volume: 9;
Issue: December;
Start page: 1;
Date: 2012;
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Keywords: Global warming | General circulation model | Carbon dioxide | Caspian sea water oscillations

The rapid rise of Caspian Sea water level (about 2.25 meters since 1978) has caused much concern to all five surrounding countries, primarily because flooding has destroyed or damaged buildings and other engineering structures, roads, beaches and farm lands in thecoastal zone. Given that climate, and more specifically climate change, is a primary factor influencing oscillations in Caspian Sea water levels, the effect of different climate change scenarios on future Caspian Sea levels was stimulated. Variations in environmentalparameters such as temperature, precipitation, evaporation, tmospheric carbon dioxide and water level oscillations of the Caspian sea and surrounding regions, are considered for bothpast (1951-2006) and future (2025-2100) time frames. The output of the UKHADGEM general circulation model and five alternative scenarios including A1CAI, BIASF, BIMES WRE450 and WRE750 were extracted using the MAGICC SCENGEN Model software(version 5.3). The results suggest that the mean temperature of the Caspian Sea region (Bandar-E-Anzali monitoring site) has increased by ca. 0.17ºC per decade under the impacts of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes (r=0.21). The Caspian Sea water level has increasedby ca. +36 mm per decade (r=0.82) between the years 1951-2006. Mean results from all modeled scenarios indicate that the temperature will increase by ca. 3.64ºC and precipitation will decrease by ca. 10% (182 mm) over the Caspian Sea, whilst in the Volga river basin,temperatures are projected to increase by ca. 4.78ºC and precipitation increase by ca. 12% (58 mm) by the year 2100. Finally, statistical modeling of the Caspian Sea water levels projectfuture water level increases of between 86 cm and 163 cm by the years 2075 and 2100, respectively.

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