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一种适应于目标网架规划的负荷密度预测新方法 New Load Density Forecasting Method for Objective Network Planning

Author(s): 王晓侃

Journal: Smart Grid
ISSN 2161-8763

Volume: 02;
Issue: 01;
Start page: 25;
Date: 2012;
Original page

Keywords: 负荷密度预测 | 空间负荷预测 | 目标网架规划 | 饱和分析法 | 分区 | Load Density Forecasting | Spatial Load Forecasting | Objective Network Planning | Saturation Analysis | Zoning

针对常规预测方法的不确定性因素比较多,且需要大量的空间数据,计算工作量大,提出基于目标网架规划的负荷密度预测新方法,它依据城市的目标规划所确定的各种用地性质的面积,减少了土地面积的不确定性。采用该方法对中山远景的土地面积的资料收集和大量中山供电局负荷信息的处理,消除了常规符合预测方法中用地面积的不确定性,把不确定因素锁定在每种用地的负荷密度,并用横向比较法等预测方法进行比较分析和校核,对中山市的远景的用电负荷水平及负荷空间分布进行预测,结果表明大大减少了负荷预测的不确定因素,提高了负荷预测的精度。There are some problems such as various uncertain factors, a lot of spatial data are required, and the vast amount of work in the conventional forecasting methods. So proposed a new load density forecasting method for objec-tive network planning which based on the city’s objective planning identified by the nature of land area that can reduce the uncertainty of land area. Using this method to processing the collected data of the Zhongshan perspective land area and a large number of load information supplied by Zhongshan Power Supply Bureau, which can eliminate the conven-tional forecasting methods’ uncertainty in line with land area. The uncertainty of land area was locked in each load den-sity, and comparing and anglicizing this forecasting method with the horizontal comparison method, and forecasted the level of forecasting electricity and load spatial distribution forecasting for Zhongshan. The results showed that it sig-nificantly reduced the load forecast uncertainty factors and improved the accuracy of load forecasting.
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