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PREDICTION OF THE LIKELIHOOD OF HOUSEHOLDS FOOD SECURITY IN THE LAKE VICTORIA REGION OF KENYA

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Author(s): Peter Nyamuhanga Mwita | Romanus Odhiambo Otieno | Verdiana Grace Masanja | Charles Muyanja

Journal: Pakistan Journal of Statistics and Operation Research
ISSN 1816-2711

Volume: 7;
Issue: 2;
Date: 2011;
Original page

Keywords: household | food | security | logistic | probability

ABSTRACT
This paper considers the modeling and prediction of  households food security status using a sample of households in the  Lake Victoria region of Kenya. A priori expected food security  factors and their measurements are given. A binary logistic regression model  derived was fitted to thirteen priori expected factors. Analysis of the marginal effects revealed that effecting the use of the seven significant determinants: farmland size, per capita aggregate production, household size, gender of household head, use of fertilizer, use of pesticide/herbicide and education of household head,  increase the likelihood of a household being food secure. Finally, interpretations  of   predicted conditional probabilities, following improvement of significant determinants,  are given.
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