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Research on the Price Risk Management in China Agricultural Products

Author(s): Herui Cui

Journal: Journal of Computers
ISSN 1796-203X

Volume: 5;
Issue: 8;
Start page: 1235;
Date: 2010;
Original page

Keywords: Price risk | Cobweb model | Random walk test | Futures market | Insurance

The accidents in these years sound the alarm and remind us to pay attention to the risk around us and the management to it. This paper studies on the risk in agricultural products and mainly analyses the key risk: Price risk. This paper first definite the concept of the risk and introduces the main risk in agricultural products, through using the methods of regression and contributing rate of price changes and output changes to the income changes of farmer compares the price risk and output risk and finds that the price risk is the key risk in agricultural products. After this, the paper mainly analyses the characteristics of the price risk, concluding the internal mechanism of the price of the agricultural products cobweb model, random walk test on the price changes which indicates that the price of agricultural products is random and have no trend. At last this paper makes the point that we should continue to improve the Futures Market and use price protection policy, strengthen the construction of information infrastructures and information services, develop the agricultural insurance to management the price risk and to reduce the possibility of the income of farmer. This paper provides the basic theoretical for drawing up the macroeconomic policy and hopes to contribute strength to the construction of new rural.
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