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Statistical Flood Frequency Analysis Using Short Term Data

Author(s): Abdul Aziz Abdul Ghani | Ani Shabri

Journal: Matematika
ISSN 0127-8274

Volume: 16;
Issue: 1;
Start page: 11;
Date: 2000;
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Keywords: Autoregressive process | return period | empirical distribution

The most suitable probability distribution for estimating flood risks using short-term data is presented in this paper. A simulation method using autoregressive process to represent daily flows are used. Several distributions were fitted to the annual peaks of autoregressive process. The levels determined using the distributions were compared with the levels from empirical distribution determined using ordered peaks of 1000 autoregressive process. It was found that the Lognormal III, Pearson Type III and the Weibull gave good risks estimates of flood of high return period.
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