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A Tight Prediction Interval for False Discovery Proportion under Dependence

Author(s): Shulian Shang | Mengling Liu | Yongzhao Shao

Journal: Open Journal of Statistics
ISSN 2161-718X

Volume: 02;
Issue: 02;
Start page: 163;
Date: 2012;
Original page

Keywords: Multiple Testing | False Discovery Proportion | False Discovery Rate | Weak Dependence | Correlated Test Statistics | High-Dimensional Data Analysis | Prediction Interval | Upper Prediction Bound | Permutation-Based Method

The false discovery proportion (FDP) is a useful measure of abundance of false positives when a large number of hypotheses are being tested simultaneously. Methods for controlling the expected value of the FDP, namely the false discovery rate (FDR), have become widely used. It is highly desired to have an accurate prediction interval for the FDP in such applications. Some degree of dependence among test statistics exists in almost all applications involving multiple testing. Methods for constructing tight prediction intervals for the FDP that take account of dependence among test statistics are of great practical importance. This paper derives a formula for the variance of the FDP and uses it to obtain an upper prediction interval for the FDP, under some semi-parametric assumptions on dependence among test statistics. Simulation studies indicate that the proposed formula-based prediction interval has good coverage probability under commonly assumed weak dependence. The prediction interval is generally more accurate than those obtained from existing methods. In addition, a permutation-based upper prediction interval for the FDP is provided, which can be useful when dependence is strong and the number of tests is not too large. The proposed prediction intervals are illustrated using a prostate cancer dataset.
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