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Time Series Model of Occupational Injuries Analysis in Ghanaian Mines-A Case Study

Author(s): S.J. Aidoo | P.A. Eshun

Journal: Research Journal of Environmental and Earth Sciences
ISSN 2041-0484

Volume: 4;
Issue: 2;
Start page: 162;
Date: 2012;
Original page

Keywords: Differencing | forecasting | mining | safety | stationarity

This study has modeled occupational injuries at Gold Fields Ghana Limited (GFGL), Tarkwa Mine using time series analysis. Data was collected from the Safety and Environment Department from January 2007 to December 2010. Testing for stationarity condition using line graph from Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) 17.0 edition failed, hence the use of Box-Jenkins method of differencing which tested positive after the first difference. ARIMA (1,1,1) model was then applied in modeling the stationary data and model diagnostic was done to ensure its appropriateness. The model was further used to forecast the occurrence of injuries at GFGL for two year period spanning from January 2011 to December 2012. The results show that occupational injuries for GFGL are going to have a slight upward and downward movement from January 2011 to May 2011, after which there will be stability (almost zero) from June 2011 to December 2012.
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