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TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE PREDICTION DURING EVENTS: A TEST BASED ON PREVIOUS TSUNAMIS

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Author(s): Paul M. Whitmore

Journal: Science of Tsunami Hazards
ISSN 8755-6839

Volume: 21;
Issue: 2;
Start page: 135;
Date: 2003;
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Keywords: tsunamis | tsunami | tsunami amplitude prediction | Alaska

ABSTRACT
The U.S. West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center’s (WC/ATWC) far-field tsunami amplitude prediction method is tested by applying the technique to nine previous, well-recorded tsunamigenic events. Predicted tsunami amplitudes outside the source area are shown to be sufficiently accurate to guide warning cancellation/restriction/expansion decisions. Average error per event ranged from 0.04m to 0.29m with error defined as the absolute value of the difference between the recorded amplitude and the predicted amplitude. Had this technique been available during the 1986 Aleutian Is. and the 1994 Kuril Is. tsunami warnings, the warned areas likely would not have been expanded to include the U.S. West Coast, Canada, and Alaska east of Kodiak Island.
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