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Türkiye'nin İhracat Talebi Fonksiyonunun Sınır Testi Yöntemi ile Eşbütünleşme Analizi = The Cointegration Analysis of Turkey's Export Demand Function by Bounds Test

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Author(s): Muammer ŞİMŞEK | Cem KADILAR

Journal: Dogus University Journal
ISSN 1302-6739

Volume: 6;
Issue: 1;
Start page: 144;
Date: 2005;
Original page

Keywords: İhracat talebi | Marshall-Lerner koşulu | Birim kök | Kısıtsız hata düzeltme modeli | Eşbütünleşme analizi | Sınır testi | Kritik sınır değerleri | Export demand | Marshall-Lerner condition | Unit roots | Unrestricted error correction model | Cointegration | Bounds test | Critical value bounds

ABSTRACT
This study includes an econometric analysis of the export demand behaviour by using Turkey's annual data that cover 32 years periods from 1970 to 2002. In the study, the 'bounds test' method of Pesaran et al (2001) was used to investigate the long run relationship between export demand, and its determinants, namely income and relative prices. As a result of this empirical analysis, it was demonstrated that export volume, income and relative prices were cointegrated. The estimated long term elasticities of export demand with respect to income and relative prices are 0.21 and -1.684, respectively. The sum of the elasticities of import and export demand exceeds one (-1.01) i.e., Marshall-Lerner condition holds. These results show that monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies may be used as substitutive policies to correct unfavourable trade balance.

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