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A Type of Combination Forecasting Method Based on Time Series Method and PLS

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Author(s): Liang Wan | Biao Luo | Hong-Mei Ji | Wei-Wei Yan

Journal: American Journal of Operations Research
ISSN 2160-8830

Volume: 02;
Issue: 04;
Start page: 467;
Date: 2012;
Original page

Keywords: PLS | Time Series Method | Combination Forecast Method | Sales Forecasts

ABSTRACT
This paper depends on the panel data of Anhui province and its 17 cities’ cigarette sales. First we established three single forecasting models (Holter-Wintel Season product model, Time series model decomposing model and Partial least square regression model), after getting the predicted value of cigarette sales from these single models, we then employ the combination forecasting method based on Time Series method and PLS to predict the province and its 17 cities’ cigarette sales of the next year. The results show that the accuracy of prediction is good which could provide a reliable reference to cigarette sales forecasting in Anhui province and its 17 cities.

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