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Uncertainties in Estimating Ecological Effects of Ozone under Egyptian Climatic Changes

Author(s): Akram A. Ali | Ibrahim A. Hassan | Hanaa S. Fahmi

Journal: Journal of Biological Sciences
ISSN 1727-3048

Volume: 2;
Issue: 9;
Start page: 560;
Date: 2002;
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Keywords: O3-level | crop production | yield | modeling

An Ideal farm in Abbis village (Northern Egypt) was selected, with ozone (O3) levels recorded in 1999 used as the reference scenario. Experimental dose-response functions for seven important crops were included. With the aid of linear programming model OPTICROP, the maximum difference between the proceeds of production and the variable costs was determined for different levels of O3 by optimizing the structure of production. The economically most efficient structure was chosen from 29 possible crop rotations. The model predicts that increasing O3 pollution causes a shift from rotation with O3-sensitive crops (e.g. radish) to rotations with predominantly O3-tolerant crops (e.g. barley). On acreage, an increase in O3 level by 10% leads to a decrease in the total gross margin of 4%. Parallel to structural changes in production, the requirement for production factor (e.g. machinery, use of fertilizers, etc.) changes. It is concluded that O3 pollution can have important economic consequences, which could affect political decision-making.
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