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The use of Grey System Theory in predicting the road traffic accident in Fars province in Iran

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Author(s): Ali Mohammadi | leyla Moradi | Ahmad Talebnejad | Abdolreza Nadaf

Journal: Australian Journal of Business and Management Research
ISSN 1839-0846

Volume: 1;
Issue: 9;
Start page: 18;
Date: 2011;
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Keywords: Road traffic accident | Grey system theory | The GM(1.1) model | Forecasting.

ABSTRACT
Traffic accidents have become a more and more important factor that restrict the development of economy and threaten the safety of human beings. Considering the complexity and uncertainty of the influencing factors on traffic accidents, traffic accident forecasting can be regarded as a grey system with unknown and known information, so be analyzed by grey system theory. Grey models require only a limited amount of data to estimate the behavior of unknown systems. In this paper, first, the original predicted values of road traffic accidents are separately obtained by the GM (1,1) model, the Verhulst model and the DGM(2,1) model. The results of these models on predicting road traffic accident show that the forecasting accuracy of the GM(1,1) is higher than the Verhulst model and the DGM(2,1) model. Then, the GM(1,1) model is applied to predict road traffic accident in Fars province.

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