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Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Türkiye İçin İşsizlik Histerisinin Sınanması = Analyzing the Unemployment Hysteresis for Turkey Under Structural Breaks

Author(s): Veli YILANCI

Journal: Dogus University Journal
ISSN 1302-6739

Volume: 10;
Issue: 2;
Start page: 324;
Date: 2009;
Original page

Keywords: İşsizlik Histerisi | Yapısal Kırılma | Birim Kök Analizi | Unemployment Hysteresis | Structural Breaks | Unit Root Tests

In this study, we examine unemployment hysteresis for Turkey over the period 1923- 2007 by using unit root tests which allow for structural breaks. We test whether unemployment rates are stationary by using Perron, Zivot-Andrews (ZA), Lumsdaine – Papell (LP) and LM unit root tests. According to the ZA and LP tests, we find evidence of hysteresis. We find series as a unit root process with structural breaks according to both Perron and the LM tests. We conclude even transitory shocks have permanent effects on the level of unemployment and can cause natural rate of unemployment to change.
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