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Can Consumer Confidence Data Predict Real Variables? Evidence from Croatia

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Author(s): Marija Kuzmanovic | Peter Sanfey

Journal: Croatian Economic Survey
ISSN 1330-4860

Volume: 15;
Issue: 1;
Start page: 5;
Date: 2013;
Original page

Keywords: consumer confidence | Croatia

ABSTRACT
This paper uses monthly data to examine the links between consumer confidence and real economic variables in Croatia, and it tests whether movements in the former contain predictive power for the latter. The results suggest that changes in consumer confidence help to explain retail turnover and imports and that expectations about forthcoming major purchases have predictive power for retail turnover. We also find that the inclusion of confidence on the right-hand side improves the fit of simple models of retail turnover, a variable that is highly correlated with quarterly GDP. The results therefore highlight the usefulness of these survey data in helping explain and forecast the real economy.
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