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Comparison of Simulated Trends of Regional Climate Change in the Carpathian Basin for the 21st Century Using Three Different Emission Scenarios

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Author(s): PIECZKA, Ildikó | PONGRÁCZ, Rita | BARTHOLY, Judit

Journal: Acta Silvatica & Lignaria Hungarica
ISSN 1786-691X

Volume: 7;
Start page: 9;
Date: 2011;
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Keywords: Regional climate modeling | PRECIS | Temperature | Precipitation | Carpathian Basin

ABSTRACT
The present paper discusses the regional climate modeling experiments for the 21stcentury for the Carpathian Basin using the model PRECIS. The model PRECIS is a hydrostaticregional climate model with 25 km horizontal resolution developed at the UK Met Office, HadleyCentre. Simulated future changes – in mean climatic values, distributions and empiricalprobabilities – are analyzed for the period 2071–2100 (compared to 1961–1990, as a referenceperiod). Significant warming is projected at 0.05 level for all of the A2, A1B, and B2 scenarios,the largest warming is estimated in summer. Not only the mean value is likely to change, but alsothe distribution of daily mean temperature. By the end of the century the annual precipitation inthe Carpathian Basin is likely to decrease, and the annual distribution of monthly meanprecipitation is expected to change. Significant drying is projected in the region in summer, whilein winter the precipitation is estimated to increase.
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