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A description of the @RISK program through a case study of a pig farm investment

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Author(s): Krisztina Pocsai | Peter Balogh

Journal: Agrárinformatika Folyóirat
ISSN 2061-862X

Volume: 2;
Issue: 1;
Start page: 77;
Date: 2011;
Original page

Keywords: investment analysis | case study | economic efficiency indexes | risk analyzer program | probability

ABSTRACT
The @RISK risk analyser program supports the decision makers when the probability of an incident is not known. The risk analyser program is such an IT tool, which determines the probability of the future events in the past and present informations knowledge by a simulation measure. In our study we used the @RISK 4.5 Industrial version program and we performed the risk analysis through four major steps. We represent the simulation results of the risk analysis of an enlargement investment in a pig farm through graphic illustrations. We analysed the influence of the determinants for the external investment’s risk. We established that the probability of the refund of this investment in all indexes is less than 50 percent. The implementation of the investment rests on the willingness of the decision maker to take risk. In our study it was realized that in the course of a conventional investment-economic analysis we can know only the expected value of the indexes, but with this risk analyser program we can get also estimations for the probability of occurrence, distribution and confidence interval of the indexes.
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