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FORECASTING THE FINANCIAL RETURNS FOR USING MULTIPLE REGRESSION BASED ON PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS

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Author(s): Nop Sopipan

Journal: Journal of Mathematics and Statistics
ISSN 1549-3644

Volume: 9;
Issue: 1;
Start page: 65;
Date: 2013;
Original page

Keywords: SET Index | Forecasting | Principal Component Analysis | Multicollinearity

ABSTRACT
The aim of this study was to forecast the returns for the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index by adding some explanatory variables and stationary Autoregressive order p (AR (p)) in the mean equation of returns. In addition, we used Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to remove possible complications caused by multicollinearity. Results showed that the multiple regressions based on PCA, has the best performance.

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