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Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation in Well Control Risk Assessment Based on AHP: A Case Study

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Author(s): Peibin GONG | Baojiang SUN | Gang LIU | Yong WANG

Journal: Advances in Petroleum Exploration and Development
ISSN 1925-542X

Volume: 4;
Issue: 1;
Start page: 13;
Date: 2012;
Original page

Keywords: Risk assessment | Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation | Analytic hierarchy process | Weight | Risk factor

ABSTRACT
To give a quantitative description of well control risk, a multi-layer fuzzy comprehensive evaluation based on AHP (analytic hierarchy process) is used. During the evaluation, risk factors and weight are given by Delphi method and AHP method. A multi-level and multi-factor evaluation system is built including four level-one factors of geologic uncertainty, well control equipments, techniques and crew quality, and fourteen level-two factors. Then a calculation is given with an oilfield in West China. The result shows geologic uncertainty is the primary factor leading to well control risks and the grade of well control risk is “higher risk”. The application result indicates that well control risk assessment by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is feasible.Key words: Risk assessment; Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation; Analytic hierarchy process; Weight; Risk factor
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