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Modelli di crescita limitata dalla bilancia dei pagamenti: storia e panoramica

Author(s): Anthony P. Thirlwall

Journal: Moneta e Credito
ISSN 0026-9611

Volume: 64;
Issue: 256;
Start page: 319;
Date: 2011;
Original page

Keywords: Balance of payments | growth | Thirlwall’s Law | dynamic Harrod multiplier

Thirlwall’s 1979 balance of payments constrained growth model predicts that a country’s long run growth of GDP can be approximated by the ratio of the growth of real exports to the income elasticity of demand for imports assuming negligible effects from real exchange rate movements. The paper surveys developments of the model since then, allowing for capital flows, interest payments on debt, terms of trade movements, and disaggregation of the model by commodities and trading partners. Various tests of the model are discussed, and an extensive list of papers that have examined the model is presented.
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