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On the rationality of decisions with unreliable probabilities

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Author(s): Fernando Birman

Journal: Disputatio
ISSN 0873-626X

Volume: III;
Issue: 26;
Start page: 97;
Date: 2009;
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Keywords: Rationality | Bayesianism | utility | probability | reliability

ABSTRACT
The standard Bayesian recipe for selecting the rational choice is pre-sented. A familiar example in which the recipe fails to produce any definite result is introduced. It is argued that a generalization of Gärdenfors’ and Sahlin’s theory of unreliable probabilities — which itself does not guarantee a solution to the problem — offers the best available approach. But a number of challenges to this approach are also presented and discussed.
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